[US] Researchers find no notable AI-related rise in unemployment

As generative AI came into widespread use, critics warned that the technology would wipe out jobs on a large scale. With nearly half of all US workers now using AI on the job, researchers at Stanford analysed payroll records for millions of Americans. They found no notable rise in unemployment they could attribute to AI, Warp News reports.

Since late 2022, employment in the US has grown by around 6 per cent, including in the occupations most exposed to AI.

Stanford researchers, Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen analysed anonymised payroll records from ADP. The sample reportedly covered between 3.5 and 5 million employees per month, from January 2021 to June 2026.

They learned that total employment in the sample rose by about 6 per cent between November 2022, when ChatGPT launched, and June 2026. Even in occupations with the highest AI exposure, employment grew by approximately 4 per cent.

The researchers have stated that claims of economy-wide AI-driven job losses are not visible in payroll data.

They reportedly sorted occupations by how AI is actually used, drawing on data about usage of the AI assistant Claude. In occupations where AI primarily automates tasks, employment for the youngest workers was found to have declined. 

In occupations where AI primarily complements human work, employment is flat or rising. Among young workers, researchers found the group with the most complementary AI usage to be among those with the fastest employment growth.

Occupations built on practical experience, ‘tacit knowledge’, showed faster employment growth for experienced workers.

Additionally, the researchers examined base pay and reportedly found small differences in wage trends between more and less AI-exposed occupations, and small differences between age groups. They concluded that labour market adjustment is happening through employment, not through lower wages.

Source: Warp News

(Link via original reporting)

As generative AI came into widespread use, critics warned that the technology would wipe out jobs on a large scale. With nearly half of all US workers now using AI on the job, researchers at Stanford analysed payroll records for millions of Americans. They found no notable rise in unemployment they could attribute to AI, Warp News reports.

Since late 2022, employment in the US has grown by around 6 per cent, including in the occupations most exposed to AI.

Stanford researchers, Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen analysed anonymised payroll records from ADP. The sample reportedly covered between 3.5 and 5 million employees per month, from January 2021 to June 2026.

They learned that total employment in the sample rose by about 6 per cent between November 2022, when ChatGPT launched, and June 2026. Even in occupations with the highest AI exposure, employment grew by approximately 4 per cent.

The researchers have stated that claims of economy-wide AI-driven job losses are not visible in payroll data.

They reportedly sorted occupations by how AI is actually used, drawing on data about usage of the AI assistant Claude. In occupations where AI primarily automates tasks, employment for the youngest workers was found to have declined. 

In occupations where AI primarily complements human work, employment is flat or rising. Among young workers, researchers found the group with the most complementary AI usage to be among those with the fastest employment growth.

Occupations built on practical experience, ‘tacit knowledge’, showed faster employment growth for experienced workers.

Additionally, the researchers examined base pay and reportedly found small differences in wage trends between more and less AI-exposed occupations, and small differences between age groups. They concluded that labour market adjustment is happening through employment, not through lower wages.

Source: Warp News

(Link via original reporting)